- Find the most believable people possible who disagreewith you and try to understand their reasoning.
- Raising the probability of being right is valuable no matterwhat your probability of being right already is.
- Triangulate your view with believable people who arewilling to disagree.
- Believability weight your decision making.
- Recognize that: 1)the biggest threat to good decision making is harmful emotions and 2) decision making is a two-step process (first learning and then deciding)
- Remember that you’re looking for the best answer, not simply the best answer that you can come up with yourself.
- Sincerely believe that you might not know the best possible path and recognize that your ability to deal well with “not knowing” is more important that whatever it is you do know.
- When you’re responsible for a decision, compare the believability-weighted decision making of the crowd to what you believe.